How to Make Bets with Shape Up

Traditional backlogs often lead to a never-ending list of features, which can become overwhelming and stagnant. In Shape Up, teams abandon the idea of backlogs altogether and replace them with bets.

A bet is a project or feature that is selected based on its potential value, and it’s time-boxed for a six-week cycle. This keeps teams focused on high-priority items and eliminates the burden of a constantly growing backlog. It’s a strategic choice that’s made by evaluating each project’s likelihood of success and impact on the business.

Instead of managing a massive list of items to do someday, the team bets on a few key projects, and if they aren’t chosen, they don’t sit in limbo—they’re either reprioritized or removed altogether.

The betting table

At the heart of this process is the betting table. Near the end of each cycle, decision-makers—usually product leaders or company executives—gather to discuss potential bets.

Only pitches made in the past cycle are considered as bets. Nothing else is on the betting table.

If the team decides to make a bet, then that project goes into the next cycle to build. If not, then it’s simply let go. If someone wants to advocate for it in the next betting table, they can track it and lobby for it next time.

This fosters a short, productive meeting where only the most valuable and achievable projects move forward.

Asking hard questions

When making decisions at the betting table, several critical questions guide the process:

1. Does the problem matter? – Not every problem is worth solving. Is this issue pressing enough compared to others?
2. Is the appetite right? – Is the scope reasonable for the team’s time frame? Could a smaller version still be impactful?
3. Is the solution attractive? – Does the solution have hidden costs, like UI real estate or complexity?
4. Is this the right time? – Timing and team morale play a big role. Have we been focusing too much on certain areas?
5. Are the right people available? – Projects require specific expertise. Team members’ experience and availability are crucial.

These questions ensure that each bet is well-considered, balanced between urgency, value, and feasibility, leading to more deliberate and effective project outcomes.